If it's smart enough to do all that, it's smart enough to get itself a job

Ever hear old timers complain new cars aren’t reliable? That’s because modern engine and power train design is very precise and set to operate in a very narrow tolerance to get the performance, efficiency, aka fuel mileage and power and low emissions mandated. A simple set of aftermarket wheels picked without thought is enough to cause significant mileage or range decreases and impact other systems of modern cars. The power train isn’t inherently less reliable- it just tells you when it isn’t operating at its best. Older cars needed either a sensitive owner or a very bad problem before it was critical enough to require service. Newer cars will trigger a “check engine light” to alert drivers and registration officials the car is in port shape long before it is on its “last leg.”

As we expand that complexity to vehicle control systems and other areas beyond power train- it will not only become a matter of public safety and interest to have vehicles be kept in “as new” condition- but it will also make it much easier to tell- and to check- of vehicles are in “road safe” shape.

What you have to understand is that legislation in many countries is designed specifically- and without any hiding of the fact- to get older cars off the road. Legislators are very honest on this point- usually mentioning safety or the environment as reasons to get “old clunkers” off the road. But there ARE hidden agendas. Many laws not so much coincidentally encourage the buying of new vehicles. A form of economic subsidy to auto makers and heavy manufacturers- pillars of the economies of many developed nations and those nations that supply labor and materials.

These laws designed to keep newer cars on the road, in tip top shape- also (argue coincidence or not,) discourage driving by lower income people- those who can’t afford the ever inflating price of new cars as the lowest base models carry more and more technology as standard and required- air bags and antilock brakes and more airbags and eventually it is likely things like “collision avoidance” will be mandated by law on all cars. The upkeep of these cars sophisticated emissions controls and systems goes up as well-

Eventually people may not own cars at all- or only the very rich will. Self driving cars bring advantages which cannot be leveraged while human drivers are on the road. One of the primary delays in traffic is that each individual driver tends to try and find THEIR fastest path to THEIR destination- changing lanes and cutting people off and so on. It’s been shown repeatedly that if ALL drivers focus on how ALL drivers can reach their destinations fastest- you get cars off the roads faster and ultimately there is less traffic for everyone. The other major cause of traffic is accident/user error.

Self driving cars could ease these issues by moving with a “herd” AI. Self driving cars can also communicate intentions and conditions with each other and react faster than most any human ever could. That means you can safely reduce following distances, increase speed, and optimize intersections and traffic controls to allow the machines to calculate the fastest and Safest routes- the most efficient routes, with margins of errors closer than human drivers can be relied on for. That means less stops and shorter times stuck waiting before you can move.

Self driving cars also alleviate parking congestion. No need to circle endlessly for parking and wait for the jerk who blocked the whole road way waiting for another person to free a space and so on. The car can drop you off near the curb at your destination and drive off to park in a garage where machines all efficient park without ego or concern for distance.

When you’re ready your car swoops you up and that’s that. No aggressive drivers stopping the merge or timid drivers stopping everyone behind them. Seamless merges as lines of cars pick up and drop off passengers. Couple that with things like electric scooters that are becoming ubiquitous in many cities and with a pinch of civil engineering you can be dropped off or picked up in designated and optimized areas blocks from your destination if you desire to further reduce time in traffic.

Then let’s not forget that we could increase speed limits in theory- a self driving car could be more capable and have faster reflexes than a human- coupled with their ability to communicate and central control of the “herd” and that means theoretically we could increase speeds to higher than is safe for human drivers. With special roads- elevated or otherwise “sealed” and maintained of debris and wild life or pedestrians- these could serve much like “Autobahns” but without the danger of a BMW doing 200kph coming up on a Peugeot that decided 100kph was the best speed for the fast lane. Long before the cars could be a danger to each other they would both be aware and agree on who would give up the right of way.

But the vast majority of this doesn’t work if we still have human drivers on the road. The environmental and efficiency and safety benefits decline substantially as long as humans are behind the wheel because we are a long way off from making machines that can predict and react to a human driver. As humans we have enough trouble with that- even professional drivers with years of experience can’t always tell what someone- especially a “bad” driver is going to do.

You also can’t really have a freeway where self driving cars zoom along at 200mph with a car length or so between them and have a human driver safely navigate that. There are some people who could do it- we all have off days and that’s a bad day under those conditions- but that element of uncertainty makes it so you can’t have your “herd” run at its most efficient- it must sacrifice efficiency for margin of safety in the presence of an unknown variable.

So even if they don’t outright ban human driven cars in the name of progress- how many interstate pile ups or kids ran over on the way to school or whatever else will it take before people are crying for them to ban human driven cars? Don’t think so? Look at guns. People die- and what is the argument for driving your own car against self driving cars once proven safe? You want to? Freedom is an idea to the masses- lives are tangible. Your wants go out the window with the voters when people die. They’ll weigh what you want against the potential risks to them and theirs and that’s the end of that. The moment self driving cars are safer than human driven cars- human driven cars will get clamped down on. It’s just the way people think. It’s practical, pragmatic, safe.

So self driving cars become, as long as economics supports it, the norm. Wait long enough and they do. There’s no reason they wouldn’t eventually. When that happens- think they’ll be cheap? Think a box with that sophistication will cost less than a car now- when the cheapest car that didn’t come out of a vending machine and doesn’t require you to be 5’ tall or amputate your legs below the knees is about $20k? We are talking more expensive, more in need of upkeep- and likely lower selling value when they are old.

Think about it- would you pay $10k for a car that needs $10k in work to be usable when you can get a new one, in better shape, with newer technology and a warranty for $20? Not if you have any kind of credit you probably wouldn’t.

Much like electrics and hybrids now- a 7-10 year old Prius is looking at needing a battery- and for “peak performance” the battery is likely tired at 5 years. Having a dealer replace that battery is an easy $6k and an aftermarket battery can be $2-3k at a good deal just for parts. So... at $25 for a new Prius with a fresh factory battery and newer better technology and features... if you look up old priuses (prii??) they don’t tend to go for a whole lot because they are likely in need of a load of money in upkeep.

So then- you have a self driving electric car... that thing is probably over $100k, and will come down some but not a whole bunch of trends continue (a Corolla cost about 1/3 to 1/4 an average blue collar salary in 1985, in 2020 it costs about 1/2 the average salary.) It needs upkeep and is basically disposable as a car. Who’s buying that? More likely at that point you’d see lease programs and such explode. Possibly even some form of ride sharing where you pay a monthly fee to make use of the car, and the fee would vary based on the mileage/time you wanted use as well as the number of “co owners” you sought to share with.

Think about it- it doesn’t matter if you “own” the car. If it drops you off and picks you up (why wouldn’t you do that?) it has whenever you aren’t using it to go do its thing. Yeah- people need to get used to calling their cars before they want to leave by a few minutes or scheduling pick up times- but that’s no different than current platforms like lyft- and electric cars already require owners to learn to change their habits and driving schedules etc. to suit the cars needs and abilities. Electric car owners have to plan their travels around the car- and that seems to be doing just fine.

So check it out- you get dropped off at work. All day long that car is out driving other people around. If it’s back in time to go home- it takes you home. If not- another different car takes you. What’s he difference anyway? I know. “What if I leave my stuff in the car?” Well...

1. Ride share folks already learned not to do this. Convertible owners also know not to do this. (People ask why I don’t lock the doors to my roadster. The top is fabric... if you want in it’s easy. I’d rather you open the unlocked door than cut the damn top if you want to get something.) BUT.. they ask “then why don’t you lock the doors on your coupes..?” It’s a car. The windows are glass. If you want in- it’s easy. I’d rather you open the door than break my window. I don’t leave things in the car I don’t want stollen. You could steal the parts yes. But last I checked you can break a window or slim jim a lock and donhat anyway.

So part of it is behavior- people learning new ways. But if you have legitimate things to leave in your car then you’d somehow “mark” that car as reserved and there’s probably be a price premium or use of credits for reserving that specific car- or you’d buy an “exclusive” or “family only” lease plan so that the car wasn’t used by strangers.

It’s not that hard and it makes practical sense. Likewise- consider what self driving cars mean to car design. You still need safety- but you don’t have to control the car. It can function more as a comfortable area for office work or reading or socializing. Seats and interiors could be re designed not based on the drivers need to see and control the vehicle. You don’t need a driver. The traditional seat layout of left, right etc. and quadrants also isn’t needed. What’s more- where a vehicle serves multiple people it can be divided into discreet compartments each user gets to themselves. Such an arrangement could allow a lease amount to be determined in whole or in part by how many “compartments” of a vehicle you wish to reserve.

There would be a tremendous amount of flexibility based on need and income to allocate vehicles and make money off their use. The “lease” system also gets rid of the variable of user maintenance as well as saving consumers from the depreciation of what is likely a costly asset- and gives an easy way to enforce and update the requirements for self driving cars to be road worthy as manufacturers can be forced to recall models with older systems deemed unsafe compared to newer designs and standards, or that are out of repair.

Now add in “digital plates” and other forms of transponder that governments are trying to introduce- you could instantly tell from anywhere- without even looking- who a car belongs to, what it is, if it is registered, stolen, insured, involved in a crime or is of interest. A police cruiser could roll down a block and wirelessly pull all the info on every car on the street or in the garage within a mile radius in a heat beat. Any cars with issues could be ticketed or towed on the spot.

States using “digital insurance” documents already show this as the logical course. If your bank card is cancelled and you forget to renew your autopay... that SAME DAY you’ll get flagged in the DMV and a notice sent to your home that you need to get insurance or surrender your plates and take the car off the road.

So- tying a digital plate to OBD2 or a newer replacement protocol (which makes sense as it’s relatively secure and sure way to tie a plate to a Vehicle ID number-) you could just as easily pull real time or stored code data and monitor data. The moment your car fails smog- even if you aren’t up for inspection- the DMV could be notified and your plate could be cancelled or made to read “INVALID” etc. until corrected.

Tl:dr- in the future no one will ask you about repairing your car. We already are part way there. You WILL repair it or it will be flagged for removal from the roads until you do.