1. Indeed. The Soviets lost in Afghanistan as well- and after 10 years didn’t get as far as the US.
2. The Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. It has some advantages and disadvantages that are important to consider.
3. Fools look for war, and fools ignore war when it it finds them. The USA would be foolish to start a war with Russia, but if Russia wants war we’d be fools to turn a blind eye because if they plan to fight, they’ll either fight even if we don’t, or win and be able to name the price of peace. It’s like a bully that wants your lunch money, and then your shoes, and so forth. They took Crimea and got away with it. They large got away with Syria, and that’s ignoring all their shenanigans in their own backyard up until Ukraine. As an American I don’t want to fight Russia, but if Russia wants a fight, America has a history of obliging.
4. You don’t have to win every battle or every war, just the ones that count the most.
In the end, it’s probably in most of the worlds best interests for American and Russia to not go to war. If America doesn’t instigate that theoretically draws in all of NATO and many of Americas allies. That also likely draws in Russian allies and anti western nations or opportunists who see Russia as the horse to back. It could create MASSIVE instability- with world powers tied up in a war- they can’t be everywhere at once, does China jump in to back Russia, or do they let Russia and America weaken each other while staying “neutral” and attempting to bolster and solidify trade and diplomacy, so that if one or both powers are knocked out China can fill the vacuum? Do they move on Taiwan- betting America is too committed elsewhere to act, and that IF American wins or survives the conflict that we won’t be apt to jump straight into a war with China to reclaim Taiwan- if that’s even feasible at that point- a way where we’d be acting as aggressors and couldn’t count on all our defensive..
allies even IF they are still around, capable of war, or willing to go again? What happens in the Middle East or between the Koreas? What happens in Japan, and there are real possibilities of diplomatic and other depredation in the South Pacific depending on how things go as far as the Philippines and such are concerned. Former Warsaw pact countries could also divide on wether to support or oppose the Russians, or go for gains or just work out old grudges in neighbors before the dust settles. Trade and commerce and such could be devastated and those nations not directly involved or invested such a conflict and not impacted by political instability and war secondary to the conflict could find an even worse food and supply crisis than the current Russo Ukrainian occupation has produced.
Such a conflict would have good odds of turning into a third world war depending on the way things went down. The very big fear is Russia using nuclear weapons, especially if cornered or facing defeat. The regime has proven unstable and has made not just veiled, but overt threats over much less. It is entirely possible if the US was sufficiently corned that we too might resort to nuclear weapons. While with exception of perhaps one or two presidents in the last 70 or so years, for the most part our government at least seems more stable in terms of not causing total Armageddon because we didn’t get our way… but that said, America has used nuclear weapons before in name of desperation and that desperation was less than total defeat by a foreign power- so I’ll give the US leadership a slight edge in that department over the Russians but we can’t claim to be too high and mighty to possibly use our nukes.
Now, no one really knows what happens if the nukes fly. It’s never happened. We don’t actually know for certain the detestation or even the targets that will be hit. We don’t actually know if a single or mass launch would trigger a full retaliation or a chain reaction across nuclear powers. At this point we don’t even know if a lot of the weapons would go off for sure or if they d perform to spec. It is possible that even if there is a total exchange between Russia and the USA that many nations might not be actually impacted in any real sense, or that long term that might not usher in a new age where less impacted nations might become new global powers. Or China could sit it out and come out the other side the dominant world power holding more nukes than the rest of the world combined and become the global leader or even a global empire.
Lots of what ifs. If we use the public information on nuclear weapons capability and numbers, the picture is oddly less grim than many games and films might lead one to believe. Russia is massive. China is massive. The US is pretty big. When you overlay the radius of bombs… there just aren’t enough to completely destroy such large nations with explosive and primary effects of the entire nuclear arsenal in general, and if you use all your nukes at once on one enemy, you don’t have any for your other enemies. So… the strategy isn’t as straight forward as MAD might have one think. That said- such a massive and close together chain detonation of nukes could cause all sorts of problems that go beyond the blast zones. Fallout and other effects could be real hazards and have far reaching and long lasting consequences.
When we look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the buildings and terrain were pretty favorable, more so one than the other, for maximizing destruction of the weapons- modern western construction is at least generally more resistant to many of the effects of a nuclear weapon which caused such devastation in those cities. Then consider that even in such total destruction there were survivors. Many of whom went on to live ling lives. Factor in that both cities were rebuilt and rehabilitated within under 20 years, and people have been living in them for generations at this point. So it isn’t some game where you nuke a city and no one and nothing can live there for 1,000 years exactly. The concept of “nuclear winter” has also been… I won’t say debunked, but nuclear climate change or mass planet wide extinction aren’t the generally accepted default outcome of nuclear exchange anymore.
Of course… like I said… it’s never happened so we would only have one way to really know what would happen and we only have one way to know how that might change the world potentially for centuries or more to come. The smart person in general hopes this doesn’t happen. It’s just too risky. A lot of people or interests could short or long term gain a lot from a nuclear exchange- a lot of nations could find benefits to the US or Russia or China or any other potentially involved parties, or all of those parties, being wiped out or crippled by war or nuclear exchange-
L many countries today wouldn't exist without WW2. Many companies and the subsequent jobs and cities and industries and such resulting wouldn’t exist. When maps get redrawn and resources reallocated and regimes change etc.. some people come out better or worse regardless if they “won” or “lost.” So it’s a gamble. It’s a gamble with alot of potential
For a lot of people to lose big.
Best to avoid war in general, it a direct conflict between Russia and the USA is something that is hugely dangerous to those countries and to just about everyone else potentially. No one should want to see that, but the Russians keep setting a high price for peace and their actions thus far show a leadership that is seeking a war. The USA should avoid starting a war, engaging in direct conflict with Russia, but if we are otherwise acting unlawful accordance to international law and our interests and alliances abroad while not engaging in direct aggression with Russia, and Russia decides to start a war… Well…like I said, only fools wish for war but allowing Russia to run unchecked over the globe until they feel like stoping isn’t a good idea. Letting the Russians take Ukraine is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people but a in my opinion it would be a foolish blunder.
We don’t need to defeat Russia and it doesn’t serve US interests to
Destroy Russia. Russia may just need knocked down a peg or two,
Providing the west is up for the task. To
Engage Russia and lose would be a terrible blunder that would likely
Be worse than doing nothing at least in the short term, but their aggression has only brown worse with time. If we are going to light these fireworks now is as good as later, because the way the road is right now without some change, sooner or later things will pop off. If the world is going to end,
It’s shit or get off the pit because we’ve been dancing around the drain for almost a century. You sometimes gotta call the bluff and be ready for if it isn’t a bluff.
2. The Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. It has some advantages and disadvantages that are important to consider.
3. Fools look for war, and fools ignore war when it it finds them. The USA would be foolish to start a war with Russia, but if Russia wants war we’d be fools to turn a blind eye because if they plan to fight, they’ll either fight even if we don’t, or win and be able to name the price of peace. It’s like a bully that wants your lunch money, and then your shoes, and so forth. They took Crimea and got away with it. They large got away with Syria, and that’s ignoring all their shenanigans in their own backyard up until Ukraine. As an American I don’t want to fight Russia, but if Russia wants a fight, America has a history of obliging.
4. You don’t have to win every battle or every war, just the ones that count the most.
L many countries today wouldn't exist without WW2. Many companies and the subsequent jobs and cities and industries and such resulting wouldn’t exist. When maps get redrawn and resources reallocated and regimes change etc.. some people come out better or worse regardless if they “won” or “lost.” So it’s a gamble. It’s a gamble with alot of potential
For a lot of people to lose big.
Destroy Russia. Russia may just need knocked down a peg or two,
Providing the west is up for the task. To
Engage Russia and lose would be a terrible blunder that would likely
Be worse than doing nothing at least in the short term, but their aggression has only brown worse with time. If we are going to light these fireworks now is as good as later, because the way the road is right now without some change, sooner or later things will pop off. If the world is going to end,
It’s shit or get off the pit because we’ve been dancing around the drain for almost a century. You sometimes gotta call the bluff and be ready for if it isn’t a bluff.