Good to know

Well, I misread days as gays and I was really curious how they'd come to that conclusion

Humans in general are incredibly bad at intuitive math. This is an obvious example, but we do it every day. The lottery operates on this principal as does gambling and most “prize” type games. Even if we don’t know the numbers we know that many people have failed, we know that logically a business wouldn’t be there if it gave out more than it got back, but we still go for it. It’s even worse when we do know the numbers. 1/300 doesn’t mean if you do it 299 tines and fail the 300th will be it. You could do it 3000 times and fail, you could do it 29,900 times and all the last 100 succeed. Hell- people think “50/50” are good odds. Those are TERRIBLE odds. NASA would not launch an unmanned craft on 50/50 odds. Where there is sufficient perceived benefit we are blind to risk, and tend to estimate even the slimmest chance as 100%, and where there is risk that blinds us to benefit we estimate 0%. We tend to think we are special and others fail because of ignorance or because they aren’t us.