Pretty sure it’s a joke. Not sure how much is a joke. I can say the conclusion is almost certainly flawed.
1. Post imperial Russian military has basically always been a disorganized and questionably capable mob that functioned as a meat grinder. Russia has the bodies that they can keep throwing more at almost any problem. When coupled with various advantages of harsh climate that’s basically the story of the Russian defeat of the Nazis- attrition where officers shot their own men- if they refused to charge to bear certain death, they’d be given certain death. Even with sticks and stones Russia could muster enough bodies to seriously wreak havoc or even possibly capture certain countries in the region if the people were dedicated to the campaign and motivated properly.
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2. Nukes. A massive “boots on the ground” invasion by Russia or China of the Is Has never been the particularly pressing threat. That’s a logistical and technological nightmare that hasn’t been terribly plausible..
.. for over 40 or so years. So even if Russia had essentially no deployable military- so long as they could operate their nuclear capabilities, there would likely be a demand for NATO or a similar alliance. Countries, especially smaller countries, with little or no nuclear capabilities can’t generally sit on equal terms tactically to nuclear equipped nations that are willing to use nuclear arms. NATO is one of the few paths such countries have to access to credible nuclear deference in that sense. If Russia threatens or deploys nuclear weapons, a nuclear nato ally will respond on your behalf. If your forces are decimated, a nato allies forces will fight for you. Because…
3. Rarely does anyone win in war- in the sense that whatever you gain will generally cost a hefty price. Ukraine can win and bounce back- but they can’t get back the dead or set back the clock on all the time people lost to war, and reconstruction. Fortunes can be made and better things built after war- but the reconstruction tends to be hard on people and tends to set a nation back further than had it simply not needed to rebuild and instead used the same time and resources to continue growth. So being in a position to deter a war so that you don’t have your cities destroyed and people suffering and dying is generally the only “win” in a true sense. NATO has seemed to work as a deterrent to Russian aggression for member states- but that’s another discussion.
Wether it is true or not- people mostly believe it is. So we can debate about nato and it’s effectiveness but the perception is what people buy into usually.
So…
4. Tomorrow is another day. Our Soviet allies against Hitler became the bad guys of then free world” and then our not so Soviet pals and now.. well.. we are having this talk so the RF doesn’t look so great. What about tomorrow? If Putin loses lower or dies- which no matter what will happen someday- which way does the wind blow and for how long? The USSR collapsed and we all held hands and built a space station and did that for decades and went back to making nuclear threats against each other. In 2030, 2060- which Russia will we get, our best capitalist pals or a hostile nationalist or wild card…?
We kept NATO around after the USSR fell. It took a good 10-20 years for the really serious cracks to show up between being best pals and mortal enemies. We don’t know which way history will play out next. There are no reasons to believe that Russia won’t be a serious threat even if we said they aren’t right now. Through much of the 1990’s Russia was a mess and was barely in a position to function let alone be an international boogie man besides their nukes, which they struggled through the transition from Soviet power to keep those under their control even. So any smart person wouldn’t count Russia out. As long as they have Nukes that can hit someone they can always be a massive global threat and exert power on the global stage- so even if Russia dissolved into scores of break away republics, if one claimed to be Russia and had some nukes- NATO would likely still be in business- or something like it. It isn’t like if Russia split up it couldn’t find a way to be reunited either.
Historical precedent suggests that between the pride of Russian identity and politics, it can always happen. So the “d” in “69d” would likely stand for “derp.” Putin is not a total fool and there is surely more to this than meets the eye- but he’s also an old man with a Soviet dream. What’s he personally staking on this? As a gamble he has more to win than lose in the sense wether he’s sick or not- he can’t have a lot of active life left. At 70 he’s shooting his shot. Either way he’s probably going to make the history books and at least some will remember him as a hero or a man of his people. His life isn’t on the line in Ukraine, at worst he risks assassination maybe? Political fallout? Amongst all the unseen angles- he’s not really on the edge here personally with anything that wasn’t already at risk for him.
1. Post imperial Russian military has basically always been a disorganized and questionably capable mob that functioned as a meat grinder. Russia has the bodies that they can keep throwing more at almost any problem. When coupled with various advantages of harsh climate that’s basically the story of the Russian defeat of the Nazis- attrition where officers shot their own men- if they refused to charge to bear certain death, they’d be given certain death. Even with sticks and stones Russia could muster enough bodies to seriously wreak havoc or even possibly capture certain countries in the region if the people were dedicated to the campaign and motivated properly.
-
2. Nukes. A massive “boots on the ground” invasion by Russia or China of the Is Has never been the particularly pressing threat. That’s a logistical and technological nightmare that hasn’t been terribly plausible..
So…
4. Tomorrow is another day. Our Soviet allies against Hitler became the bad guys of then free world” and then our not so Soviet pals and now.. well.. we are having this talk so the RF doesn’t look so great. What about tomorrow? If Putin loses lower or dies- which no matter what will happen someday- which way does the wind blow and for how long? The USSR collapsed and we all held hands and built a space station and did that for decades and went back to making nuclear threats against each other. In 2030, 2060- which Russia will we get, our best capitalist pals or a hostile nationalist or wild card…?