My local radio discussed these numbers, actually, and according to them there are some key differences.
Firstly, during 2016 some polls favoured Hillary, some Trump, while now in 2020 *all but one* poll favours Biden.
Secondly, because the pre-election polls were so bad predictions in 2016, the polling companies have adjusted their formulas to give better predictions.
This suggests Biden's lead over Trump is many times more significant than Hillary's ever was.
(Though much can change until November)
The only change is that Trump's numbers will get even worse. Slowly but surely, and it'll logrithmically get closer and closer to 35%. At this point he literally could save the nation, end world hunger, invent nuclear fusion and it none of it would matter simply because he's such a jackass.
If there was anything everyone should have learned from the 2016 election results, journalistic integrity was as good as dead when it comes to politics. On election night they gave Hillary a 90ish percent chance to win the election. And regarding the polls, a lot of folks have been saying these ones, just like the 2016 polls, are inaccurate. They're not actually polling the entire voting demographic, they're just getting poll results from one side that won't vote for Trump. People don't want to say they're voting for Trump, and the fact that only leftists (far and otherwise) are comfortable expressing their politics without fear of being dog piled for wrongthink in another poll makes the silent majority a very real and credible source of votes that are currently uncounted. Poll data can be public, and you can be found out saying you were going to vote for Trump come November, thus they lie or remain silent in this current political climate.
technically she did win and the polls actually were accurate, the problem was the where of it, because if you want to accurately predict an election location matters as the electoral college is a real thing. That's what turns it all askew; statistics still checks out, ultimately.
And don't act like it's just leftists that hate Trump; it ain't. People tend to forget before all this Trump was a leftist himself. There are smart people and stupid people; that'll give you a better measure. It got a bit more complex because fucking Hillary was the other choice, which became blind hate.
Then consider them a big enough base for votes that don’t reveal themselves as votes for Trump until they actually vote. Plenty of folks across the political spectrum who dislike Trump voted for him in 2016 and I doubt that’ll change come November. If anything, 2020 election day is shaping up to be a repeat of 2016. Hell, the one professor whose method of prediction accurately picked Trump as the winner by electoral vote is predicting as it stands that he’ll win again.
idk, tyranny of the minority can be just as terrible, if not even worse than tyranny of the majority.
Wouldn't it be nice if power wouldn't lead to tyranny regardless? Alas, that's wishful thinking.
Well, the way I'm looking at, my feelings on pure democracy is that majority rules is a lot like gang rape. only more than half have agree on it to start it, but that doesn't make it right. If California, New York, or any of the states where enough of the population resides to make up 51% of the total population got to decide who wins the election every time we had a presidential election, It'd be a shittier form of deciding who gets to be President if all you had to do was campaign in two or three states. I understand the electoral college isn't perfect, what with battleground states changing all the time and essentially boiling down to campaigning in certain states, but I prefer to err on the idea that each state should have some modicum of power when it comes to the elections, rather than the abject reality of the most populous states deciding what happens for every other state in the federal branch of the government.
I get that, but Idaho deciding what NY or CA do is just as stupid. I think we're in agreement that it'll never be perfect. All we can really do is try and use the least stupid system
Jo Jorgenson ftw!
Firstly, during 2016 some polls favoured Hillary, some Trump, while now in 2020 *all but one* poll favours Biden.
Secondly, because the pre-election polls were so bad predictions in 2016, the polling companies have adjusted their formulas to give better predictions.
This suggests Biden's lead over Trump is many times more significant than Hillary's ever was.
(Though much can change until November)
Wouldn't it be nice if power wouldn't lead to tyranny regardless? Alas, that's wishful thinking.