<puts fingers in ears> “nope. This is PRIIIIIIME real estate. Worth millions, yours for only 7885 hundred, some of the wife’s hush puppies, and a sweeet tea.”
This is a model, not unlike the model that predicted 2M US covid deaths. There are endless examples of past climate change models that turned out to be ridiculously wrong, so don't get too excited about every model that you read about.
This is a model, not unlike the model that predicted 2M US covid deaths. There are endless examples of past climate change models that turned out to be ridiculously wrong, so don't get too excited about every model that you read about.
It IS a model and models ARE often wrong, sometimes more drastically so. But- our economy is a model that runs on and is fed by models, predictions, guesses and hunches based usually on data. “YOY, MOY, MOM, quarterly projections” and so on. Budgets for private and government agencies are based on models of previous years and anticipation of growth or change- with that anticipation based on... modeling. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance- but it is a data point used to form the best plans we can for the future at a given time. If we do not base future actions on assumptions and past data- the world stops working.
Science itself is a model and we have no guarantee that gravity will not “stop” any given moment or that drinking water won’t become toxic and we will need to drink acid to be safe. No one knows they will wake up tomorrow either, but most bulls still are paid monthly no? It’s all models and statistics and best guesses.
So what’s very important here- is the type of model or prediction outlawed. They did not outlaw buying property based on predictions of future economic changes or property values. Thy did not outlaw businesses using predictions or modeling to guide their business decisions. They very specifically outlawed using climate models- regardless of wether there is reason to question the accuracy or methods of a particular model.
i remember in the 80's them yelling how NY was going to be under water in ten years and we did nothing to change it when we had the chance and look at it now. err umm...well we must have been miraculously saved at the zero hour by a Koala-fish mutant bird.
The important thing to remember is that while “Water World” hasn’t happened- the science hasn’t been wrong just the dates and numbers. Sea levels ARE rising, global temperatures are increasing and we are seeing natural disasters increase in severity and frequency or appear where once they were almost never seen. It’s more likely in climate change we are talking centuries than decades for any sort of “doomsday” scenario of the vanilla variety. But the changes to stop these things also can take centuries, so the urgency is there to act before it is too late to stop a process.
Climate science is a relatively new science and the earlier the prediction- the more imprecise it was likely to be. Much the same as early science of space travel or medicine or anything else really- but it’s always improving and getting better at modeling change. You also have to remember that we HAVE made all sorts of changes and instituted all sorts of measures and social conditioning for several decades already aimed at helping climate change and pollution, so a prediction based on an increasing population under the environmental circumstances of the 1970’s when cars still used leased fuel and many didn’t have any emissions control devices at all- well for example, of course that would no longer be accurate once those things changed.
Politics and media play their part too in shaping the message we receive. But overall, while science has gotten a few wrong on climate change, that’s how science works. We do the best with what we have while trying to improve upon it. It’s important that we don’t completely dismiss climate science or what it is telling us about the trajectory of our world just because it can’t get the exact dates right.
You know who doesn't give a shit about this law? The US military. They treat the threat of climate change as a reality and spend their construction budgets with an eye towards long term functionality.
these fuckers have been predicting we'd be "underwater in 10 years!!!!1" for decades