Skeptics note: while it is likely- arguably much MORE likely that when people disappear near caves it’s probably people getting lost in caves and not some supernatural phenomenon- be aware that to hold yourself “higher” than some “conspiracy nut” you can’t just do the exact same thing and see two seemingly related things and connect them as cause and effect. The same way of thinking that says “people seem to disappear here... and it’s usually a full moon... it’s Werewolves!” Applies to “people disappear here- it’s usually near caves- it’s caves!”
Where you see two things you THINK are related, common sense or not- the job isn’t done because you’ve found a possible explanation you find plausible or agreeable. You can’t establish the thing as “fact” until you’ve taken your hypothesis- turned it into a testable theory, and your theory has passed the burden of the scientific method.
Without those last steps all we have said is that it is POSSIBLE that aliens are kidnapping people near caves- OR it is POSSIBLE people are getting lost in caves. If you can’t prove which one it is using the scientific method- they are still unexplained. In point of fact- in relatively recent history- scientists from physics and zoology and anthropology and history and more have disproven long held assumptions about how many things work that were established facts- because largely assumptions were made and data was missing- and often we either couldn’t test the theory or no one bothered because everyone agreed the answer was self evident. Until you have real world data- a hypothesis is just that. You’d be shocked how many times what seems to work on paper doesn’t in real life. So if you are to “be better” than you can’t just posit another seemingly less outlandish possibility as a counter. You have to actually use science.
Well done- and an apt summation. If I were to add a line or two it might be: “Correlation doesn’t equal causation, and being right about a guess still makes it a guess unless and until you meet a burden of proof for a theory- caves and aliens are the same in principal without proof.”
Indeed correlation does not imply causation, and we should remain skeptical at all times, especially when someone tries to push their hypothesis on us without letting us formulate or own (not saying it's the case here btw, this post is just two datasets).
In this case, though, I'd say the hypothesis of people disappearing in caved makes sense logically. And, I mean, it's not like we can check for solid proof since the people were lost. Sure we could lead huge search parties to see how many skeletons we'd find in the caves but that sounds like a waste of resources. So I'd say in this case the hypothesis that people tend to get lost in caves is the best thing we got.
Certainly I’d agree that the most logical and intuitive hypothesis is caves. But- a hypothesis is just a hypothesis until it’s put to the test regardless of wether we are hypothesizing that certain areas of the brain are actually quantum structures that have quantum interactions that help produce thought- or that there are ghosts that live in our brains and thinking is just then talking. The former seems less likely- but neither is any less valid until we have a working and accepted theory. So in a practical sense we often must make judgments based on the “odds as we see them” of what is most likely- but being right on a guess is still a matter of chance even if logic or intuition and observation support our guess.
Most caves are formed by running water. Notice most of these spots are around major rivers. Maybe missing people are drowning in rivers not getting lost in caves.
Correlation does not equal causation!!
Did I get that right, @guest_
In this case, though, I'd say the hypothesis of people disappearing in caved makes sense logically. And, I mean, it's not like we can check for solid proof since the people were lost. Sure we could lead huge search parties to see how many skeletons we'd find in the caves but that sounds like a waste of resources. So I'd say in this case the hypothesis that people tend to get lost in caves is the best thing we got.
Correlation does not equal causation!!